My wedding weather odds?

Okay I am getting married on saturday, May 22nd. I have seen a couple weather reports some say it will be sunny and some say it is going to be a rain/snow mix. The wedding is outside so I am kind of stressing. It's not the end of the world we have a backup room that's inside. But Utah weather is so unpredictable. Honestly I don't know much about weather reports. So my question what do you think my odds are for a beautiful garden wedding? these are the two websites I looked at.



http://www.accuweather.com/us/ut/lehi/84043/forecast-details.asp?fday=5



http://www.bing.com/weather/search?q=weather%26amp;unit=F%26amp;qpvt=weatherMy wedding weather odds?
Well, first off, congratulations and good luck. If the marriage is as good as mine has been (35 years so far), you will enjoy.



The second thing is, don't stress over this. The weather is not controllable and no matter what the conditions are, have a good time and enjoy the company of your friends and family as you start a new chapter of your life. Believe me, it won't matter 20 years from now what the conditions were. We had snow and freezing rain at ours and we laugh about it now and the funny things that happened that day. It was a great day.



Now, for the weather that day. I looked at the sites you did and will say that those forecasts for Saturday are taken straight from the medium range portion of the Global Forecast System which is a global mathematical model of the atmosphere. It is a fairly good model but not one I trust in the mountainous portion of the U.S. west. I much prefer a couple of other models that perform much better but still have a lot of faults.



I checked those models and there are a number of striking differences. I looked at the discussions of the latest performance of the models and there still leave a lot of questions so do not be surprised if the forecast for Saturday changes over the next few days. However, at the moment, it does look like it will be mostly cloudy and cooler. You didn't state the time of day but being a garden wedding suspect it would be early afternoon. If that is when it is, it should be cloudy with temperatures in the middle 50s. A little cool and the lack of decent sun will cause it to feel a little cooler than that. The chance of rain can't be completely ignored but think that there is a stronger chance that it will be either dry or possibly,at worst, a very light drizzle/sprinkle during the mid day period.



It was wise to set up a backup plan.



Now, what to watch for in the forecasts. If the forecast remains the same or nearly the same by Thursday evening, the system that will cause the chance of rain is being handled by the models and the lack of changes by the models will indicate that the math is handling the situation and you can have more confidence that the forecast is nearly correct. On the other hand, watch the temperatures and the probability of precipitation (POP). If the temperature increases and the POP goes down, the system has slowed and you have a better chance of a sunny day. If the temperatures remain nearly the same and the POP increases, the system is slightly faster/stronger than currently forecast and will more likely be cloudy and damp. I don't really expect at this point that the rain will be significantly heavy. The snow will be very unlikely during the day and mostly likely would occur late Saturday night or Sunday Morning.



Again, best wishes and good luckMy wedding weather odds?
Weather predictions are difficult in most regions beyond about seven days and get better and better as the day in question approaches. The trend is your friend. Look at the animated weather map on most TV news broadcasts and observe what weather systems may be arriving from other regions and whether they should pass before the day in question. On the day in question check an aneroid barometer in the morning having set the pointer in the evening. If the pressure is rising good weather is on the way. A gentle tap may move the pointer up or down showing the current trend. Either way it should be a great day!My wedding weather odds?
Right now, there is a chance for rain, particularly in the northern parts of the state. The high will likely be around seventy, with a low around forty.



Congratulations, and all the best!